{
  "report_id": "067-late-booking-continuity",
  "status": "validated",
  "version": "1.0",
  "publication": {
    "headline": "La reserva de última hora coincide con 2,4 puntos menos de continuidad",
    "canonical_url": "https://wodbuster.com/observatorio/reserva-ultima-hora-continuidad-centros-deportivos/",
    "date_modified": "2026-07-18"
  },
  "period": {"start": "2025-01-01", "end": "2025-12-31"},
  "sample": {"matched_centers": 1772, "open_membership_reservations": 42693542},
  "definitions": {
    "late_booking": "Proporción de reservas libres de cuota realizadas durante las 24 horas anteriores a la clase.",
    "observed_continuity": "Parte de los participantes activos del primer trimestre observada también en el último.",
    "adjustment": "Grupos formados dentro de combinaciones de tamaño, frecuencia mensual, ocupación y horizonte de apertura de reservas."
  },
  "findings": {
    "early_group_under_24h_pct": 23.06,
    "late_group_under_24h_pct": 52.40,
    "early_group_continuity_pct": 61.60,
    "late_group_continuity_pct": 59.21,
    "continuity_difference_pp": -2.39,
    "replacement_difference_pp": 1.25,
    "growth_difference_pp": 0.57,
    "without_horizon_continuity_difference_pp": -2.20,
    "under_2h_continuity_difference_pp": -1.71,
    "full_year_continuity_difference_pp": -1.89
  },
  "series": {
    "adjusted_quartiles": [
      {"group":"Reserva temprana","centers":512,"under_24h_pct":23.06,"under_2h_pct":4.67,"horizon_days":4.15,"typical_active":149.75,"visits_per_active":8.42,"occupancy_pct":51.79,"continuity_pct":61.60,"replacement_pct":41.38,"growth_pct":4.36},
      {"group":"Intermedia-temprana","centers":446,"under_24h_pct":30.79,"under_2h_pct":6.51,"horizon_days":4.06,"typical_active":150.75,"visits_per_active":8.43,"occupancy_pct":50.33,"continuity_pct":60.92,"replacement_pct":41.88,"growth_pct":4.44},
      {"group":"Intermedia-tardía","centers":512,"under_24h_pct":37.36,"under_2h_pct":8.51,"horizon_days":4.12,"typical_active":149.50,"visits_per_active":8.37,"occupancy_pct":49.82,"continuity_pct":61.11,"replacement_pct":42.00,"growth_pct":4.04},
      {"group":"Última hora","centers":302,"under_24h_pct":52.40,"under_2h_pct":11.43,"horizon_days":3.93,"typical_active":137.75,"visits_per_active":8.39,"occupancy_pct":48.26,"continuity_pct":59.21,"replacement_pct":42.63,"growth_pct":4.93}
    ],
    "sensitivity": [
      {"measure":"24 horas, con control de apertura","continuity_difference_pp":-2.39},
      {"measure":"24 horas, sin control de apertura","continuity_difference_pp":-2.20},
      {"measure":"Solo las últimas 2 horas","continuity_difference_pp":-1.71},
      {"measure":"24 horas, doce meses completos","continuity_difference_pp":-1.89}
    ]
  },
  "quality": {"minimum_open_membership_reservations":500,"minimum_active_per_quarter":50,"largest_center_q4_share_pct":2.18},
  "privacy": {"personal_identifiers_exported":false,"center_identifiers_exported":false},
  "cautions": [
    "La comparación es agregada por centro y no demuestra causalidad.",
    "La continuidad observada no equivale a una baja o renovación contractual.",
    "El resultado principal utiliza solo reservas libres asociadas a cuota para evitar confundir antelación y canal de acceso."
  ]
}