{
  "report_id": "096-multimonth-commitment-continuity",
  "status": "validated",
  "version": "1.2",
  "publication": {
    "headline": "Los centros con más cobertura multimes no muestran mayor continuidad activa",
    "canonical_url": "https://wodbuster.com/observatorio/multimes-continuidad-activa/",
    "date_modified": "2026-07-18"
  },
  "period": {
    "start": "2025-01-01",
    "end": "2025-12-31"
  },
  "definitions": {
    "multimonth_share": "Porcentaje de meses de cobertura vendidos mediante pagos de 2, 3, 4, 6 o 12 meses.",
    "lower_multimonth": "Hasta el 11 % de la cobertura procede de pagos multimes.",
    "higher_multimonth": "Al menos el 25 % de la cobertura procede de pagos multimes.",
    "continuity": "Porcentaje de participantes del primer trimestre que vuelve a estar activo en el cuarto."
  },
  "sample": {
    "eligible_crossed_centers": 1595,
    "coverage_share_distribution_pct": {
      "p25": 0.0,
      "median": 0.73,
      "p75": 8.59,
      "p90": 23.66
    },
    "amount_share_distribution_pct": {
      "p25": 0.0,
      "median": 0.57,
      "p75": 7.72,
      "p90": 21.32
    }
  },
  "primary_matched": {
    "pairs": 94,
    "centers": 188,
    "communities": 13,
    "lower_multimonth": {
      "centers": 94,
      "median_multimonth_coverage_share_pct": 0.28,
      "median_multimonth_amount_share_pct": 0.17,
      "median_monthly_price_eur": 55.0,
      "median_coverage_months": 1307.5,
      "median_typical_active": 157.75,
      "median_visits_per_active": 8.44,
      "median_occupancy_pct": 51.92,
      "median_continuity_pct": 62.02,
      "median_replacement_pct": 42.77,
      "median_growth_pct": 5.12
    },
    "higher_multimonth": {
      "centers": 94,
      "median_multimonth_coverage_share_pct": 37.07,
      "median_multimonth_amount_share_pct": 34.33,
      "median_monthly_price_eur": 55.0,
      "median_coverage_months": 1297.5,
      "median_typical_active": 159.25,
      "median_visits_per_active": 8.24,
      "median_occupancy_pct": 53.55,
      "median_continuity_pct": 61.29,
      "median_replacement_pct": 40.47,
      "median_growth_pct": 2.01
    },
    "paired_difference": {
      "median_continuity_pp": 0.76,
      "bootstrap_95_ci_continuity_pp": [
        -1.89,
        4.09
      ],
      "median_replacement_pp": -0.81,
      "median_growth_pp": -0.2,
      "share_pairs_higher_continuity_pct": 52.13
    },
    "balance": {
      "median_absolute_coverage_difference_pct": 14.96,
      "median_absolute_active_difference_pct": 9.02,
      "median_absolute_price_difference_eur": 5.0,
      "median_absolute_frequency_difference": 0.59,
      "median_absolute_occupancy_difference_pp": 4.79,
      "largest_center_q4_share_pct": 1.51
    }
  },
  "sensitivities": {
    "high_threshold_20_pct": {
      "pairs": 128,
      "centers": 256,
      "communities": 14,
      "lower_multimonth": {
        "centers": 128,
        "median_multimonth_coverage_share_pct": 0.26,
        "median_multimonth_amount_share_pct": 0.16,
        "median_monthly_price_eur": 55.0,
        "median_coverage_months": 1373.0,
        "median_typical_active": 165.5,
        "median_visits_per_active": 8.55,
        "median_occupancy_pct": 50.84,
        "median_continuity_pct": 61.6,
        "median_replacement_pct": 42.56,
        "median_growth_pct": 3.54
      },
      "higher_multimonth": {
        "centers": 128,
        "median_multimonth_coverage_share_pct": 30.07,
        "median_multimonth_amount_share_pct": 28.44,
        "median_monthly_price_eur": 55.0,
        "median_coverage_months": 1418.5,
        "median_typical_active": 163.25,
        "median_visits_per_active": 8.55,
        "median_occupancy_pct": 51.95,
        "median_continuity_pct": 61.82,
        "median_replacement_pct": 40.59,
        "median_growth_pct": 2.36
      },
      "paired_difference": {
        "median_continuity_pp": 0.75,
        "bootstrap_95_ci_continuity_pp": [
          -1.31,
          3.54
        ],
        "median_replacement_pp": -0.81,
        "median_growth_pp": -0.43,
        "share_pairs_higher_continuity_pct": 52.34
      },
      "balance": {
        "median_absolute_coverage_difference_pct": 15.14,
        "median_absolute_active_difference_pct": 9.25,
        "median_absolute_price_difference_eur": 4.1,
        "median_absolute_frequency_difference": 0.57,
        "median_absolute_occupancy_difference_pp": 4.73,
        "largest_center_q4_share_pct": 1.04
      }
    },
    "high_threshold_30_pct": {
      "pairs": 65,
      "centers": 130,
      "communities": 12,
      "lower_multimonth": {
        "centers": 65,
        "median_multimonth_coverage_share_pct": 0.18,
        "median_multimonth_amount_share_pct": 0.12,
        "median_monthly_price_eur": 55.0,
        "median_coverage_months": 1349,
        "median_typical_active": 164.5,
        "median_visits_per_active": 8.47,
        "median_occupancy_pct": 52.09,
        "median_continuity_pct": 62.04,
        "median_replacement_pct": 42.95,
        "median_growth_pct": 5.28
      },
      "higher_multimonth": {
        "centers": 65,
        "median_multimonth_coverage_share_pct": 43.71,
        "median_multimonth_amount_share_pct": 43.14,
        "median_monthly_price_eur": 55.0,
        "median_coverage_months": 1367,
        "median_typical_active": 162.0,
        "median_visits_per_active": 8.03,
        "median_occupancy_pct": 52.15,
        "median_continuity_pct": 60.51,
        "median_replacement_pct": 38.99,
        "median_growth_pct": -0.54
      },
      "paired_difference": {
        "median_continuity_pp": -0.65,
        "bootstrap_95_ci_continuity_pp": [
          -2.75,
          2.79
        ],
        "median_replacement_pp": -0.64,
        "median_growth_pp": 0.15,
        "share_pairs_higher_continuity_pct": 49.23
      },
      "balance": {
        "median_absolute_coverage_difference_pct": 15.45,
        "median_absolute_active_difference_pct": 9.27,
        "median_absolute_price_difference_eur": 5.0,
        "median_absolute_frequency_difference": 0.64,
        "median_absolute_occupancy_difference_pp": 5.17,
        "largest_center_q4_share_pct": 1.87
      }
    },
    "full_year": {
      "pairs": 77,
      "centers": 154,
      "communities": 12,
      "lower_multimonth": {
        "centers": 77,
        "median_multimonth_coverage_share_pct": 0.3,
        "median_multimonth_amount_share_pct": 0.18,
        "median_monthly_price_eur": 60.0,
        "median_coverage_months": 1341,
        "median_typical_active": 160.5,
        "median_visits_per_active": 8.66,
        "median_occupancy_pct": 51.95,
        "median_continuity_pct": 62.04,
        "median_replacement_pct": 42.26,
        "median_growth_pct": 4.85
      },
      "higher_multimonth": {
        "centers": 77,
        "median_multimonth_coverage_share_pct": 37.26,
        "median_multimonth_amount_share_pct": 35.13,
        "median_monthly_price_eur": 60.0,
        "median_coverage_months": 1379,
        "median_typical_active": 162.5,
        "median_visits_per_active": 8.63,
        "median_occupancy_pct": 52.73,
        "median_continuity_pct": 61.11,
        "median_replacement_pct": 39.27,
        "median_growth_pct": 1.67
      },
      "paired_difference": {
        "median_continuity_pp": 0.62,
        "bootstrap_95_ci_continuity_pp": [
          -1.89,
          2.79
        ],
        "median_replacement_pp": -0.81,
        "median_growth_pp": -1.06,
        "share_pairs_higher_continuity_pct": 50.65
      },
      "balance": {
        "median_absolute_coverage_difference_pct": 14.69,
        "median_absolute_active_difference_pct": 8.61,
        "median_absolute_price_difference_eur": 4.2,
        "median_absolute_frequency_difference": 0.58,
        "median_absolute_occupancy_difference_pp": 4.92,
        "largest_center_q4_share_pct": 1.76
      }
    },
    "amount_share_definition": {
      "pairs": 190,
      "centers": 380,
      "communities": 11,
      "lower_multimonth": {
        "centers": 190,
        "median_multimonth_coverage_share_pct": 0.0,
        "median_multimonth_amount_share_pct": 0.0,
        "median_monthly_price_eur": 55.0,
        "median_coverage_months": 1281.5,
        "median_typical_active": 165.0,
        "median_visits_per_active": 8.97,
        "median_occupancy_pct": 49.11,
        "median_continuity_pct": 61.88,
        "median_replacement_pct": 40.07,
        "median_growth_pct": 4.7
      },
      "higher_multimonth": {
        "centers": 190,
        "median_multimonth_coverage_share_pct": 17.64,
        "median_multimonth_amount_share_pct": 15.43,
        "median_monthly_price_eur": 55.0,
        "median_coverage_months": 1375.5,
        "median_typical_active": 159.25,
        "median_visits_per_active": 8.6,
        "median_occupancy_pct": 48.43,
        "median_continuity_pct": 59.77,
        "median_replacement_pct": 42.0,
        "median_growth_pct": 1.99
      },
      "paired_difference": {
        "median_continuity_pp": -1.58,
        "bootstrap_95_ci_continuity_pp": [
          -4.36,
          -0.13
        ],
        "median_replacement_pp": 1.48,
        "median_growth_pp": -0.57,
        "share_pairs_higher_continuity_pct": 42.63
      },
      "balance": {
        "median_absolute_coverage_difference_pct": 15.93,
        "median_absolute_active_difference_pct": 11.84,
        "median_absolute_price_difference_eur": 5.0,
        "median_absolute_frequency_difference": 0.76,
        "median_absolute_occupancy_difference_pp": 5.93,
        "largest_center_q4_share_pct": 1.35
      }
    }
  },
  "quality": {
    "personal_identifiers_joined": false,
    "center_identifiers_exported": false
  },
  "limitations": [
    "La comparación es agregada por centro y no vincula el periodo comprado por una persona con su continuidad.",
    "La compra multimes puede reflejar descuentos, propuesta o selección de clientes y no demuestra causalidad.",
    "Los controles no observan calidad, antigüedad, renta local ni condiciones comerciales completas.",
    "La continuidad entre trimestres no exige actividad ininterrumpida."
  ]
}