{
  "report_id": "099-no-reservation-continuity",
  "status": "validated",
  "version": "1.0",
  "publication": {
    "headline": "Más cuotas sin reservas coincide con 2,2 puntos menos de continuidad activa",
    "canonical_url": "https://wodbuster.com/observatorio/cuotas-sin-reserva-continuidad/",
    "date_modified": "2026-07-18"
  },
  "period": {
    "exposure": "2025-01-01/2025-06-30",
    "outcome": "Q1 2025/Q4 2025"
  },
  "sample": {
    "matched_centers": 1507,
    "h1_payments": 1107397,
    "largest_center_q4_share_pct": 0.66
  },
  "definitions": {
    "exposure": "Proporción de cuotas mensuales iniciadas en el primer semestre sin reservas observadas durante su cobertura.",
    "continuity": "Proporción de participantes activos en Q1 que vuelve a observarse en Q4.",
    "interpretation": "Cruce ecológico entre centros; no identifica el recorrido de cada persona ni demuestra causalidad."
  },
  "rules": {
    "minimum_h1_payments": 50,
    "minimum_active_per_quarter": 50,
    "stratification": "Cuartiles de exposición equilibrados dentro de comunidad, tamaño activo, precio mensual y frecuencia de Q1."
  },
  "primary_adjusted_quartiles": [
    {
      "exposure_quartile": 1,
      "label": "Señal baja",
      "centers": 377,
      "median_no_reservation_pct": 0.75,
      "median_no_attendance_pct": 1.35,
      "median_monthly_price_eur": 55.0,
      "median_typical_active_q1": 152.0,
      "median_visits_per_active_q1": 8.57,
      "median_q1_seen_again_q4_pct": 61.56,
      "median_q4_not_active_q1_pct": 40.46,
      "median_q4_vs_q1_change_pct": 4.76,
      "largest_center_q4_share_pct": 1.42
    },
    {
      "exposure_quartile": 2,
      "label": "Media-baja",
      "centers": 377,
      "median_no_reservation_pct": 1.17,
      "median_no_attendance_pct": 1.65,
      "median_monthly_price_eur": 55.0,
      "median_typical_active_q1": 157.0,
      "median_visits_per_active_q1": 9.09,
      "median_q1_seen_again_q4_pct": 62.27,
      "median_q4_not_active_q1_pct": 40.59,
      "median_q4_vs_q1_change_pct": 3.85,
      "largest_center_q4_share_pct": 2.51
    },
    {
      "exposure_quartile": 3,
      "label": "Media-alta",
      "centers": 377,
      "median_no_reservation_pct": 4.27,
      "median_no_attendance_pct": 5.21,
      "median_monthly_price_eur": 55.0,
      "median_typical_active_q1": 150.0,
      "median_visits_per_active_q1": 8.4,
      "median_q1_seen_again_q4_pct": 60.26,
      "median_q4_not_active_q1_pct": 43.37,
      "median_q4_vs_q1_change_pct": 4.48,
      "largest_center_q4_share_pct": 1.25
    },
    {
      "exposure_quartile": 4,
      "label": "Señal alta",
      "centers": 376,
      "median_no_reservation_pct": 7.95,
      "median_no_attendance_pct": 8.98,
      "median_monthly_price_eur": 55.0,
      "median_typical_active_q1": 153.0,
      "median_visits_per_active_q1": 8.48,
      "median_q1_seen_again_q4_pct": 59.37,
      "median_q4_not_active_q1_pct": 42.59,
      "median_q4_vs_q1_change_pct": 2.71,
      "largest_center_q4_share_pct": 1.14
    }
  ],
  "comparison": {
    "primary": {
      "difference_pp": -2.19,
      "bootstrap_ci95_low_pp": -4.02,
      "bootstrap_ci95_high_pp": -0.16,
      "bootstrap_draws": 5000
    },
    "annual_exposure": {
      "difference_pp": -2.67,
      "bootstrap_ci95_low_pp": -4.21,
      "bootstrap_ci95_high_pp": -0.12,
      "bootstrap_draws": 5000
    },
    "no_attendance_exposure": {
      "difference_pp": -1.58,
      "bootstrap_ci95_low_pp": -3.72,
      "bootstrap_ci95_high_pp": 0.01,
      "bootstrap_draws": 5000
    },
    "minimum_100_h1_payments": {
      "difference_pp": -1.88,
      "bootstrap_ci95_low_pp": -3.94,
      "bootstrap_ci95_high_pp": -0.18,
      "bootstrap_draws": 5000
    },
    "trimmed_at_25_pct": {
      "difference_pp": -1.69,
      "bootstrap_ci95_low_pp": -3.91,
      "bootstrap_ci95_high_pp": 0.18,
      "bootstrap_draws": 5000
    }
  },
  "balance": {
    "q1_vs_q4_price_difference_eur": 0.0,
    "q1_vs_q4_active_difference": 1.0,
    "q1_vs_q4_frequency_difference": -0.09
  },
  "sensitivities": {
    "annual_exposure_quartiles": [
      {
        "exposure_quartile": 1,
        "label": "Señal baja",
        "centers": 377,
        "median_no_reservation_pct": 0.92,
        "median_no_attendance_pct": 1.4,
        "median_monthly_price_eur": 55.0,
        "median_typical_active_q1": 152.0,
        "median_visits_per_active_q1": 8.57,
        "median_q1_seen_again_q4_pct": 61.75,
        "median_q4_not_active_q1_pct": 41.2,
        "median_q4_vs_q1_change_pct": 4.13,
        "largest_center_q4_share_pct": 1.43
      },
      {
        "exposure_quartile": 2,
        "label": "Media-baja",
        "centers": 377,
        "median_no_reservation_pct": 1.41,
        "median_no_attendance_pct": 1.7,
        "median_monthly_price_eur": 55.0,
        "median_typical_active_q1": 162.0,
        "median_visits_per_active_q1": 9.15,
        "median_q1_seen_again_q4_pct": 62.28,
        "median_q4_not_active_q1_pct": 40.43,
        "median_q4_vs_q1_change_pct": 4.04,
        "largest_center_q4_share_pct": 1.29
      },
      {
        "exposure_quartile": 3,
        "label": "Media-alta",
        "centers": 377,
        "median_no_reservation_pct": 4.71,
        "median_no_attendance_pct": 5.38,
        "median_monthly_price_eur": 55.0,
        "median_typical_active_q1": 142.0,
        "median_visits_per_active_q1": 8.31,
        "median_q1_seen_again_q4_pct": 60.62,
        "median_q4_not_active_q1_pct": 43.01,
        "median_q4_vs_q1_change_pct": 4.95,
        "largest_center_q4_share_pct": 2.62
      },
      {
        "exposure_quartile": 4,
        "label": "Señal alta",
        "centers": 376,
        "median_no_reservation_pct": 7.96,
        "median_no_attendance_pct": 8.69,
        "median_monthly_price_eur": 55.0,
        "median_typical_active_q1": 152.5,
        "median_visits_per_active_q1": 8.5,
        "median_q1_seen_again_q4_pct": 59.08,
        "median_q4_not_active_q1_pct": 42.99,
        "median_q4_vs_q1_change_pct": 2.43,
        "largest_center_q4_share_pct": 1.14
      }
    ],
    "no_attendance_quartiles": [
      {
        "exposure_quartile": 1,
        "label": "Señal baja",
        "centers": 377,
        "median_no_reservation_pct": 1.28,
        "median_no_attendance_pct": 1.28,
        "median_monthly_price_eur": 55.0,
        "median_typical_active_q1": 152.0,
        "median_visits_per_active_q1": 8.58,
        "median_q1_seen_again_q4_pct": 61.18,
        "median_q4_not_active_q1_pct": 41.2,
        "median_q4_vs_q1_change_pct": 5.11,
        "largest_center_q4_share_pct": 2.65
      },
      {
        "exposure_quartile": 2,
        "label": "Media-baja",
        "centers": 377,
        "median_no_reservation_pct": 1.74,
        "median_no_attendance_pct": 1.74,
        "median_monthly_price_eur": 55.0,
        "median_typical_active_q1": 159.0,
        "median_visits_per_active_q1": 9.13,
        "median_q1_seen_again_q4_pct": 62.68,
        "median_q4_not_active_q1_pct": 40.14,
        "median_q4_vs_q1_change_pct": 4.11,
        "largest_center_q4_share_pct": 1.31
      },
      {
        "exposure_quartile": 3,
        "label": "Media-alta",
        "centers": 377,
        "median_no_reservation_pct": 5.21,
        "median_no_attendance_pct": 5.21,
        "median_monthly_price_eur": 55.0,
        "median_typical_active_q1": 150.0,
        "median_visits_per_active_q1": 8.41,
        "median_q1_seen_again_q4_pct": 60.0,
        "median_q4_not_active_q1_pct": 43.37,
        "median_q4_vs_q1_change_pct": 4.3,
        "largest_center_q4_share_pct": 1.25
      },
      {
        "exposure_quartile": 4,
        "label": "Señal alta",
        "centers": 376,
        "median_no_reservation_pct": 9.09,
        "median_no_attendance_pct": 9.09,
        "median_monthly_price_eur": 55.0,
        "median_typical_active_q1": 152.5,
        "median_visits_per_active_q1": 8.46,
        "median_q1_seen_again_q4_pct": 59.6,
        "median_q4_not_active_q1_pct": 42.62,
        "median_q4_vs_q1_change_pct": 2.48,
        "largest_center_q4_share_pct": 1.13
      }
    ],
    "minimum_100_h1_payments_quartiles": [
      {
        "exposure_quartile": 1,
        "label": "Señal baja",
        "centers": 373,
        "median_no_reservation_pct": 0.74,
        "median_no_attendance_pct": 1.34,
        "median_monthly_price_eur": 55.0,
        "median_typical_active_q1": 152.0,
        "median_visits_per_active_q1": 8.57,
        "median_q1_seen_again_q4_pct": 61.56,
        "median_q4_not_active_q1_pct": 40.78,
        "median_q4_vs_q1_change_pct": 5.11,
        "largest_center_q4_share_pct": 1.43
      },
      {
        "exposure_quartile": 2,
        "label": "Media-baja",
        "centers": 373,
        "median_no_reservation_pct": 1.17,
        "median_no_attendance_pct": 1.65,
        "median_monthly_price_eur": 55.0,
        "median_typical_active_q1": 158.0,
        "median_visits_per_active_q1": 9.08,
        "median_q1_seen_again_q4_pct": 62.28,
        "median_q4_not_active_q1_pct": 40.28,
        "median_q4_vs_q1_change_pct": 3.8,
        "largest_center_q4_share_pct": 2.54
      },
      {
        "exposure_quartile": 3,
        "label": "Media-alta",
        "centers": 373,
        "median_no_reservation_pct": 4.27,
        "median_no_attendance_pct": 5.2,
        "median_monthly_price_eur": 55.0,
        "median_typical_active_q1": 151.0,
        "median_visits_per_active_q1": 8.45,
        "median_q1_seen_again_q4_pct": 60.33,
        "median_q4_not_active_q1_pct": 43.37,
        "median_q4_vs_q1_change_pct": 4.48,
        "largest_center_q4_share_pct": 1.25
      },
      {
        "exposure_quartile": 4,
        "label": "Señal alta",
        "centers": 372,
        "median_no_reservation_pct": 7.59,
        "median_no_attendance_pct": 8.69,
        "median_monthly_price_eur": 55.0,
        "median_typical_active_q1": 153.0,
        "median_visits_per_active_q1": 8.44,
        "median_q1_seen_again_q4_pct": 59.69,
        "median_q4_not_active_q1_pct": 42.57,
        "median_q4_vs_q1_change_pct": 1.98,
        "largest_center_q4_share_pct": 1.15
      }
    ],
    "trimmed_quartiles": [
      {
        "exposure_quartile": 1,
        "label": "Señal baja",
        "centers": 348,
        "median_no_reservation_pct": 0.72,
        "median_no_attendance_pct": 1.32,
        "median_monthly_price_eur": 55.0,
        "median_typical_active_q1": 153.0,
        "median_visits_per_active_q1": 8.55,
        "median_q1_seen_again_q4_pct": 61.39,
        "median_q4_not_active_q1_pct": 40.95,
        "median_q4_vs_q1_change_pct": 4.18,
        "largest_center_q4_share_pct": 1.54
      },
      {
        "exposure_quartile": 2,
        "label": "Media-baja",
        "centers": 347,
        "median_no_reservation_pct": 1.09,
        "median_no_attendance_pct": 1.54,
        "median_monthly_price_eur": 56.0,
        "median_typical_active_q1": 155.0,
        "median_visits_per_active_q1": 9.22,
        "median_q1_seen_again_q4_pct": 62.96,
        "median_q4_not_active_q1_pct": 40.14,
        "median_q4_vs_q1_change_pct": 4.35,
        "largest_center_q4_share_pct": 1.42
      },
      {
        "exposure_quartile": 3,
        "label": "Media-alta",
        "centers": 348,
        "median_no_reservation_pct": 3.68,
        "median_no_attendance_pct": 4.54,
        "median_monthly_price_eur": 55.0,
        "median_typical_active_q1": 154.0,
        "median_visits_per_active_q1": 8.51,
        "median_q1_seen_again_q4_pct": 60.73,
        "median_q4_not_active_q1_pct": 42.73,
        "median_q4_vs_q1_change_pct": 4.4,
        "largest_center_q4_share_pct": 1.39
      },
      {
        "exposure_quartile": 4,
        "label": "Señal alta",
        "centers": 347,
        "median_no_reservation_pct": 5.12,
        "median_no_attendance_pct": 5.88,
        "median_monthly_price_eur": 55.0,
        "median_typical_active_q1": 154.0,
        "median_visits_per_active_q1": 8.46,
        "median_q1_seen_again_q4_pct": 59.69,
        "median_q4_not_active_q1_pct": 42.33,
        "median_q4_vs_q1_change_pct": 2.75,
        "largest_center_q4_share_pct": 2.85
      }
    ]
  },
  "privacy": {
    "personal_identifiers_joined": false,
    "center_identifiers_exported": false
  },
  "limitations": [
    "La ausencia de reservas puede reflejar servicios sin agenda o usos con otra vía de acceso.",
    "La exposición y la continuidad se agregan a nivel de centro; no se enlazan pagos con personas.",
    "El ajuste reduce diferencias observables, pero no controla producto, satisfacción, competencia o composición de clientes.",
    "La relación no demuestra que reducir la señal cause mayor continuidad."
  ]
}