{
  "report_id": "164-platform-onboarding-growth",
  "status": "validated",
  "cutoff_exclusive": "2026-07-01",
  "definitions": {
    "origin": "Primer periodo operativo observado dentro de los 90 días posteriores al alta del centro en WodBuster.",
    "operational_period": "Ventana completa de 30 días con al menos 10 participantes activos y 10 clases celebradas.",
    "active_participant": "Perfil con al menos una asistencia efectiva durante la ventana de 30 días.",
    "scope": "Incorporación a WodBuster; no equivale a apertura del negocio ni a primera actividad deportiva del centro."
  },
  "rules": {
    "primary_creation_years": [
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      2024
    ],
    "twelve_complete_periods_required": true,
    "minimum_active_periods_in_year": 9,
    "primary_initial_active_band": "10-49",
    "currently_active_centers_only": true
  },
  "sample": {
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    "tenants_succeeded": 2174,
    "tenants_failed": 0,
    "aggregate_rows": 48690,
    "centers_with_any_activity": 2166,
    "recent_eligible_centers_all_initial_sizes": 970,
    "primary_centers": 426,
    "primary_creation_cohorts": {
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      "2023": 125,
      "2024": 180
    }
  },
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        "period": 1,
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        "period": 2,
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      {
        "period": 3,
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      },
      {
        "period": 4,
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      },
      {
        "period": 5,
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      {
        "period": 10,
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        "period": 11,
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    "centers_with_positive_difference_pct": 83.33,
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        "ordinary_places_per_active": {
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        "bootstrap_95_ci_median_class_change_pct": [
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        "bootstrap_95_ci_median_growth_gap_pp": [
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    "largest_center_class_share_pct": 4.04
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      "initial_active_band": "50-99",
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        },
        {
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        },
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      "bootstrap_95_ci_median_difference": [
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      "centers_with_positive_difference_pct": 82.24,
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          "centers_reaching_within_year_pct": 100.0,
          "bootstrap_95_ci_pct": [
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            100.0
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            32.71,
            40.81,
            48.6,
            52.65,
            57.63,
            60.12,
            63.24,
            66.36,
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            69.78,
            70.72
          ]
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            17.76
          ],
          "median_period_among_reachers": 8,
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          ]
        }
      ],
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    },
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      "initial_active_band": "100-199",
      "centers": 185,
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          "period": 1,
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            "p25": 113.0,
            "median": 130,
            "p75": 156.0
          }
        },
        {
          "period": 2,
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            "p25": 128.0,
            "median": 149,
            "p75": 181.0
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        },
        {
          "period": 3,
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            "p25": 128.0,
            "median": 155,
            "p75": 182.0
          }
        },
        {
          "period": 4,
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            "p25": 129.0,
            "median": 156,
            "p75": 191.0
          }
        },
        {
          "period": 5,
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            "p25": 133.0,
            "median": 157,
            "p75": 201.0
          }
        },
        {
          "period": 6,
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            "p25": 129.0,
            "median": 156,
            "p75": 200.0
          }
        },
        {
          "period": 7,
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            "p25": 132.0,
            "median": 158,
            "p75": 201.0
          }
        },
        {
          "period": 8,
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            "p25": 136.0,
            "median": 159,
            "p75": 208.0
          }
        },
        {
          "period": 9,
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            "p25": 135.0,
            "median": 166,
            "p75": 214.0
          }
        },
        {
          "period": 10,
          "active_participants": {
            "p25": 138.0,
            "median": 163,
            "p75": 215.0
          }
        },
        {
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            "p25": 136.0,
            "median": 166,
            "p75": 212.0
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        },
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            "median": 165,
            "p75": 217.0
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        }
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      "first_to_twelfth_period_difference": {
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      "bootstrap_95_ci_median_difference": [
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      ],
      "centers_with_positive_difference_pct": 81.08,
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          "centers_reaching_within_year_pct": 100.0,
          "bootstrap_95_ci_pct": [
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      "attendance_records_first_year": 3100695,
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            "median": 282.0,
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        },
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        },
        {
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            "p25": 255.0,
            "median": 295.5,
            "p75": 389.25
          }
        },
        {
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            "p75": 388.75
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            "p25": 264.75,
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            "p75": 388.0
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        },
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            "p25": 264.5,
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        {
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            "p25": 258.25,
            "median": 301.0,
            "p75": 387.5
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        },
        {
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          "active_participants": {
            "p25": 260.0,
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        },
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            "median": 311.5,
            "p75": 384.0
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      ],
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        "p75": 111.5
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      "centers_with_positive_difference_pct": 71.05,
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          "active_participants": 50,
          "centers_reaching_within_year_pct": 100.0,
          "bootstrap_95_ci_pct": [
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          "median_period_among_reachers": 1.0,
          "cumulative_reach_pct": [
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        },
        {
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          "centers_reaching_within_year_pct": 100.0,
          "bootstrap_95_ci_pct": [
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          "median_period_among_reachers": 1.0,
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            100.0
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        },
        {
          "active_participants": 200,
          "centers_reaching_within_year_pct": 100.0,
          "bootstrap_95_ci_pct": [
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            100.0
          ],
          "median_period_among_reachers": 1.0,
          "cumulative_reach_pct": [
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            100.0,
            100.0,
            100.0,
            100.0,
            100.0,
            100.0,
            100.0,
            100.0,
            100.0,
            100.0,
            100.0
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        }
      ],
      "attendance_records_first_year": 1257277,
      "largest_center_attendance_share_pct": 5.78
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  ],
  "broader_2019_2024_sensitivity": {
    "centers": 639,
    "first_period_median": 30,
    "twelfth_period_median": 62,
    "median_difference": 33,
    "reach_100_pct": 29.89
  },
  "definition_sensitivities": [
    {
      "minimum_active_at_start": 1,
      "minimum_classes_at_start": 1,
      "maximum_start_period": 2,
      "centers": 383,
      "first_period_median": 30,
      "twelfth_period_median": 65,
      "median_difference": 36,
      "reach_100_pct": 31.85
    },
    {
      "minimum_active_at_start": 5,
      "minimum_classes_at_start": 5,
      "maximum_start_period": 2,
      "centers": 413,
      "first_period_median": 30,
      "twelfth_period_median": 63,
      "median_difference": 34,
      "reach_100_pct": 30.75
    },
    {
      "minimum_active_at_start": 10,
      "minimum_classes_at_start": 10,
      "maximum_start_period": 1,
      "centers": 400,
      "first_period_median": 30.0,
      "twelfth_period_median": 62.0,
      "median_difference": 33.0,
      "reach_100_pct": 29.5
    },
    {
      "minimum_active_at_start": 20,
      "minimum_classes_at_start": 10,
      "maximum_start_period": 2,
      "centers": 371,
      "first_period_median": 33,
      "twelfth_period_median": 62,
      "median_difference": 30,
      "reach_100_pct": 30.19
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  ],
  "quality": {
    "all_tenants_succeeded": true,
    "attendance_not_below_active_participants": true,
    "largest_center_primary_attendance_share_pct": 1.15,
    "personal_identifiers_stored": false,
    "personal_or_center_identifiers_exported": false
  },
  "limitations": [
    "La fecha de alta indica incorporación a WodBuster, no apertura del negocio; la muestra mezcla centros nuevos y negocios ya operativos que migran su gestión.",
    "El catálogo de extracción contiene centros activos en julio de 2026. Los negocios que dejaron WodBuster no entran, por lo que existe sesgo de supervivencia y no se publica una probabilidad de éxito empresarial.",
    "Participante activo significa al menos una asistencia efectiva en 30 días; no equivale a socio, cliente de pago, ingreso ni rentabilidad.",
    "Las bandas se definen por la primera ventana operativa observada. Compararlas describe trayectorias distintas, pero no demuestra que empezar con más personas cause un crecimiento posterior.",
    "Los periodos de 30 días no coinciden exactamente con meses naturales y pueden contener vacaciones, cierres o estacionalidad diferente según la fecha de alta.",
    "La muestra representa centros españoles que usan WodBuster y no un censo de todo el mercado."
  ],
  "version": "1.3",
  "publication": {
    "headline": "Solo tres de cada diez centros que empiezan por debajo de 50 participantes activos alcanzan 100 durante el primer año",
    "canonical_url": "https://wodbuster.com/observatorio/crecimiento-primer-ano-centros-deportivos/",
    "date_published": "2026-07-19",
    "date_modified": "2026-07-19",
    "status": "validated"
  },
  "growth_milestone_timing": {
    "report_id": "165-growth-milestone-timing",
    "status": "validated",
    "question": "En qué momento del primer año registrado se alcanzan 50 y 100 participantes activos.",
    "population": "Centros de las cohortes 2022-2024 cuya primera ventana operativa reúne entre 10 y 49 participantes activos.",
    "centers": 426,
    "period_length_days": 30,
    "milestones": [
      {
        "active_participants": 50,
        "centers_reaching_within_year_pct": 74.65,
        "median_period_among_reachers": 2.0,
        "reached_by_period_3_among_year_reachers_pct": 64.15,
        "reached_by_period_6_among_year_reachers_pct": 86.16,
        "cumulative_reach_all_centers_pct": [
          0.0,
          37.56,
          47.89,
          55.4,
          61.03,
          64.32,
          66.2,
          68.78,
          69.48,
          71.6,
          72.54,
          74.65
        ]
      },
      {
        "active_participants": 100,
        "centers_reaching_within_year_pct": 29.11,
        "median_period_among_reachers": 6.0,
        "reached_by_period_3_among_year_reachers_pct": 30.64,
        "reached_by_period_6_among_year_reachers_pct": 54.83,
        "cumulative_reach_all_centers_pct": [
          0.0,
          4.69,
          8.92,
          11.03,
          13.38,
          15.96,
          17.61,
          20.19,
          22.07,
          25.12,
          27.46,
          29.11
        ]
      }
    ],
    "interpretation": {
      "fact": "El hito de 50 se concentra al principio entre quienes lo alcanzan; el de 100 se reparte durante más meses.",
      "not_demonstrated": "No mide apertura, captación comercial, ingresos, rentabilidad ni el efecto causal de una acción concreta."
    }
  },
  "first_year_schedule_scaling": {
    "report_id": "166-first-year-schedule-scaling",
    "status": "validated",
    "question": "Cómo cambia la programación cuando crece la base activa durante el primer año registrado.",
    "definitions": {
      "comparison": "Cambio dentro del mismo centro entre el segundo y el duodécimo periodo operativo de 30 días.",
      "class_count": "Clases no canceladas con actividad registrada durante la ventana.",
      "ordinary_places": "Suma de las plazas ordinarias configuradas en esas clases."
    },
    "primary_paired": {
      "first_period": 2,
      "last_period": 12,
      "centers": 422,
      "active_participant_change_pct": {
        "p25": 2.46,
        "median": 41.21,
        "p75": 100.0
      },
      "class_count_change_pct": {
        "p25": -22.58,
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        "average_configured_capacity": {
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        "period": 11,
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        "classes_per_100_active": {
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        "attendances_per_class": {
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        "ordinary_places_per_active": {
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        "average_configured_capacity": {
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        "attendance_to_ordinary_places_pct": {
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        "visits_per_active": {
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      },
      {
        "period": 12,
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        "class_count": {
          "p25": 63.0,
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          "p75": 200.75
        },
        "classes_per_100_active": {
          "p25": 114.29,
          "median": 173.02,
          "p75": 280.0
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        "attendances_per_class": {
          "p25": 2.35,
          "median": 3.55,
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        "ordinary_places_per_active": {
          "p25": 10.31,
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          "p75": 23.61
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        "average_configured_capacity": {
          "p25": 6.08,
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        "attendance_to_ordinary_places_pct": {
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        "visits_per_active": {
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      }
    ],
    "quality": {
      "source_centers": 426,
      "largest_center_class_share_pct": 4.04,
      "source_tenants_failed": 0,
      "personal_or_center_identifiers_exported": false
    },
    "limitations": [
      "El segundo periodo reduce, pero no elimina, el posible efecto de implantación inicial en WodBuster.",
      "Más asistentes por clase puede reflejar mejor utilización, presión o una mezcla de actividades distinta; no acredita calidad ni rentabilidad.",
      "El recuento de clases no mide horas de entrenador, costes, superficie ni complejidad de la programación.",
      "La muestra solo contiene centros que seguían activos en WodBuster en julio de 2026.",
      "La incorporación a WodBuster no equivale a la apertura del negocio."
    ]
  },
  "first_year_participation_frequency": {
    "article_id": "168-first-year-participation-frequency",
    "status": "validated",
    "source_report": "164-platform-onboarding-growth",
    "question": "Cambia la frecuencia de asistencia por participante mientras crece la base activa durante el primer año registrado.",
    "sample": {
      "tenants_attempted": 2174,
      "tenants_succeeded": 2174,
      "tenants_failed": 0,
      "eligible_centers": 426
    },
    "primary_second_to_twelfth": {
      "first_period": 2,
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      "centers": 417,
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        "p25": 5.02,
        "median": 6.19,
        "p75": 7.38
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      "last_visits_per_active": {
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      "visits_per_active_change_pct": {
        "p25": -11.5,
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        "p75": 24.5
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      "visits_per_active_change_absolute": {
        "p25": -0.75,
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        "p75": 1.38
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      "bootstrap_95_ci_median_change_pct": [
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      "centers_change_distribution_pct": {
        "decline_more_than_10pct": 26.62,
        "within_plus_minus_10pct": 32.37,
        "increase_more_than_10pct": 41.01,
        "positive_change": 57.79
      },
      "spearman_active_growth_vs_frequency_change": 0.352,
      "conditional_on_active_growth": [
        {
          "group": "positive_active_growth",
          "centers": 319,
          "share_of_comparable_centers_pct": 76.5,
          "active_change_pct": {
            "p25": 27.92,
            "median": 66.1,
            "p75": 121.85
          },
          "visits_per_active_change_pct": {
            "p25": -4.36,
            "median": 8.33,
            "p75": 26.31
          },
          "frequency_decline_more_than_10pct": 17.24,
          "positive_frequency_change_pct": 66.46
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        {
          "group": "active_growth_at_least_25pct",
          "centers": 253,
          "share_of_comparable_centers_pct": 60.67,
          "active_change_pct": {
            "p25": 52.27,
            "median": 82.22,
            "p75": 144.19
          },
          "visits_per_active_change_pct": {
            "p25": -3.53,
            "median": 9.41,
            "p75": 26.37
          },
          "frequency_decline_more_than_10pct": 16.21,
          "positive_frequency_change_pct": 67.98
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      ],
      "by_active_growth_quartile": [
        {
          "active_growth_quartile": 1,
          "centers": 104,
          "active_change_pct": {
            "p25": -50.0,
            "median": -21.92,
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          },
          "visits_per_active_change_pct": {
            "p25": -45.05,
            "median": -11.93,
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        },
        {
          "active_growth_quartile": 2,
          "centers": 104,
          "active_change_pct": {
            "p25": 13.21,
            "median": 21.51,
            "p75": 30.77
          },
          "visits_per_active_change_pct": {
            "p25": -6.44,
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            "p75": 21.22
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        },
        {
          "active_growth_quartile": 3,
          "centers": 104,
          "active_change_pct": {
            "p25": 54.27,
            "median": 66.92,
            "p75": 78.54
          },
          "visits_per_active_change_pct": {
            "p25": -7.06,
            "median": 6.23,
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          }
        },
        {
          "active_growth_quartile": 4,
          "centers": 105,
          "active_change_pct": {
            "p25": 122.5,
            "median": 166.67,
            "p75": 250.0
          },
          "visits_per_active_change_pct": {
            "p25": -0.9,
            "median": 10.76,
            "p75": 38.62
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        }
      ]
    },
    "third_to_twelfth_sensitivity": {
      "first_period": 3,
      "last_period": 12,
      "centers": 419,
      "first_visits_per_active": {
        "p25": 5.16,
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      "last_visits_per_active": {
        "p25": 5.12,
        "median": 6.66,
        "p75": 7.91
      },
      "visits_per_active_change_pct": {
        "p25": -14.46,
        "median": 1.9,
        "p75": 20.6
      },
      "visits_per_active_change_absolute": {
        "p25": -0.93,
        "median": 0.14,
        "p75": 1.24
      },
      "bootstrap_95_ci_median_change_pct": [
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        5.49
      ],
      "centers_change_distribution_pct": {
        "decline_more_than_10pct": 29.36,
        "within_plus_minus_10pct": 32.94,
        "increase_more_than_10pct": 37.71,
        "positive_change": 52.74
      },
      "spearman_active_growth_vs_frequency_change": 0.337,
      "conditional_on_active_growth": [
        {
          "group": "positive_active_growth",
          "centers": 307,
          "share_of_comparable_centers_pct": 73.27,
          "active_change_pct": {
            "p25": 24.63,
            "median": 50.0,
            "p75": 100.0
          },
          "visits_per_active_change_pct": {
            "p25": -8.3,
            "median": 6.34,
            "p75": 23.41
          },
          "frequency_decline_more_than_10pct": 20.52,
          "positive_frequency_change_pct": 60.26
        },
        {
          "group": "active_growth_at_least_25pct",
          "centers": 229,
          "share_of_comparable_centers_pct": 54.65,
          "active_change_pct": {
            "p25": 44.44,
            "median": 68.29,
            "p75": 113.79
          },
          "visits_per_active_change_pct": {
            "p25": -5.59,
            "median": 8.67,
            "p75": 25.95
          },
          "frequency_decline_more_than_10pct": 18.34,
          "positive_frequency_change_pct": 62.88
        }
      ],
      "by_active_growth_quartile": [
        {
          "active_growth_quartile": 1,
          "centers": 104,
          "active_change_pct": {
            "p25": -51.84,
            "median": -25.22,
            "p75": -12.5
          },
          "visits_per_active_change_pct": {
            "p25": -45.34,
            "median": -17.8,
            "p75": 6.98
          }
        },
        {
          "active_growth_quartile": 2,
          "centers": 105,
          "active_change_pct": {
            "p25": 6.06,
            "median": 12.56,
            "p75": 21.82
          },
          "visits_per_active_change_pct": {
            "p25": -10.57,
            "median": 2.52,
            "p75": 18.11
          }
        },
        {
          "active_growth_quartile": 3,
          "centers": 105,
          "active_change_pct": {
            "p25": 40.48,
            "median": 50.0,
            "p75": 60.34
          },
          "visits_per_active_change_pct": {
            "p25": -2.73,
            "median": 7.4,
            "p75": 22.6
          }
        },
        {
          "active_growth_quartile": 4,
          "centers": 105,
          "active_change_pct": {
            "p25": 100.0,
            "median": 118.18,
            "p75": 158.33
          },
          "visits_per_active_change_pct": {
            "p25": -6.91,
            "median": 8.7,
            "p75": 29.42
          }
        }
      ]
    },
    "quality": {
      "each_center_weighted_once": true,
      "all_source_tenants_succeeded": true,
      "personal_or_center_identifiers_exported": false
    },
    "limitations": [
      "La frecuencia es asistencias registradas divididas por participantes con al menos una asistencia en cada ventana; no mide visitas de personas inactivas.",
      "El cambio puede reflejar estacionalidad, mezcla de actividades, implantación progresiva o evolución del negocio.",
      "La muestra solo contiene centros que seguían activos en WodBuster en julio de 2026 y no representa aperturas verificadas.",
      "La asociación entre crecimiento y frecuencia no demuestra que una variable cause la otra."
    ]
  }
}