{
  "report_id": "169-newcomer-second-visit",
  "status": "validated",
  "version": "1.2",
  "publication": {
    "date_published": "2026-07-19",
    "date_modified": "2026-07-19",
    "canonical_url": "https://wodbuster.com/observatorio/segunda-visita-centros-deportivos/"
  },
  "period": {
    "profile_creation": "2025-01-01/2025-12-31",
    "observation_cutoff_exclusive": "2026-04-01"
  },
  "definitions": {
    "new_participant": "Perfil de alumno sin roles de personal, creado en 2025, cuya primera asistencia efectiva ocurre durante los 30 días posteriores.",
    "second_visit": "Segunda asistencia efectiva posterior a la primera, medida por tiempo transcurrido.",
    "open_access_primary": "Recorridos iniciales de bono, tarifa de reserva libre, integración externa u otros; se excluyen grupos cerrados preasignados.",
    "center_balancing": "Cada tasa se calcula primero dentro del centro y después se publica la mediana nacional."
  },
  "sample": {
    "source_centers_with_new_participants": 2143,
    "source_new_participants": 148420,
    "primary_centers": 1832,
    "primary_new_participants": 142122,
    "paired_access_centers": 817
  },
  "primary": {
    "centers": 1832,
    "newcomers": 142122,
    "metrics": {
      "return_7d_pct": {
        "p25": 81.82,
        "median": 88.89,
        "p75": 94.01
      },
      "return_30d_pct": {
        "p25": 92.86,
        "median": 97.14,
        "p75": 100.0
      },
      "return_90d_pct": {
        "p25": 95.39,
        "median": 98.23,
        "p75": 100.0
      },
      "third_visit_90d_pct": {
        "p25": 91.77,
        "median": 96.55,
        "p75": 100.0
      },
      "fourth_visit_90d_pct": {
        "p25": 88.71,
        "median": 94.93,
        "p75": 98.31
      },
      "visits_30d_per_newcomer": {
        "p25": 7.58,
        "median": 8.73,
        "p75": 9.9
      }
    },
    "bootstrap_95_ci_median": {
      "return_7d_pct": [
        88.33,
        89.41
      ],
      "return_30d_pct": [
        96.83,
        97.32
      ],
      "return_90d_pct": [
        98.0,
        98.44
      ],
      "third_visit_90d_pct": [
        96.23,
        96.88
      ],
      "fourth_visit_90d_pct": [
        94.44,
        95.24
      ],
      "visits_30d_per_newcomer": [
        8.65,
        8.81
      ]
    },
    "second_visit_timing_center_median_pct": {
      "within_24h": {
        "p25": 2.78,
        "median": 5.44,
        "p75": 9.62
      },
      "days_1_3": {
        "p25": 42.37,
        "median": 52.88,
        "p75": 61.37
      },
      "days_4_7": {
        "p25": 20.83,
        "median": 26.98,
        "p75": 34.25
      },
      "days_8_14": {
        "p25": 2.66,
        "median": 4.91,
        "p75": 7.91
      },
      "days_15_30": {
        "p25": 0.0,
        "median": 1.75,
        "p75": 3.71
      },
      "days_31_60": {
        "p25": 0.0,
        "median": 0.0,
        "p75": 1.67
      },
      "days_61_90": {
        "p25": 0.0,
        "median": 0.0,
        "p75": 0.0
      },
      "no_return_90d": {
        "p25": 0.0,
        "median": 1.77,
        "p75": 4.61
      }
    }
  },
  "access_benchmarks": [
    {
      "value": "Bono",
      "centers": 933,
      "newcomers": 42420,
      "return_7d_pct": {
        "p25": 61.11,
        "median": 72.0,
        "p75": 81.82
      },
      "return_30d_pct": {
        "p25": 80.58,
        "median": 89.02,
        "p75": 94.44
      },
      "return_90d_pct": {
        "p25": 86.41,
        "median": 92.86,
        "p75": 97.62
      },
      "third_visit_90d_pct": {
        "p25": 75.65,
        "median": 87.13,
        "p75": 94.12
      }
    },
    {
      "value": "Tarifa · grupo cerrado",
      "centers": 80,
      "newcomers": 1795,
      "return_7d_pct": {
        "p25": 90.0,
        "median": 94.43,
        "p75": 100.0
      },
      "return_30d_pct": {
        "p25": 100.0,
        "median": 100.0,
        "p75": 100.0
      },
      "return_90d_pct": {
        "p25": 100.0,
        "median": 100.0,
        "p75": 100.0
      },
      "third_visit_90d_pct": {
        "p25": 100.0,
        "median": 100.0,
        "p75": 100.0
      }
    },
    {
      "value": "Tarifa · reserva libre",
      "centers": 1897,
      "newcomers": 99505,
      "return_7d_pct": {
        "p25": 89.53,
        "median": 93.94,
        "p75": 97.3
      },
      "return_30d_pct": {
        "p25": 97.44,
        "median": 100.0,
        "p75": 100.0
      },
      "return_90d_pct": {
        "p25": 98.68,
        "median": 100.0,
        "p75": 100.0
      },
      "third_visit_90d_pct": {
        "p25": 96.97,
        "median": 100.0,
        "p75": 100.0
      }
    }
  ],
  "paired_bonus_vs_free_booking_tariff": {
    "centers": 817,
    "return_7d_pct": {
      "bonus": {
        "p25": 60.0,
        "median": 71.43,
        "p75": 80.95
      },
      "free_booking_tariff": {
        "p25": 90.24,
        "median": 94.29,
        "p75": 97.22
      },
      "within_center_difference_pp": {
        "p25": 11.36,
        "median": 21.88,
        "p75": 31.43
      },
      "bootstrap_95_ci_median_difference_pp": [
        20.2,
        22.84
      ],
      "tariff_higher_pct": 91.92
    },
    "return_30d_pct": {
      "bonus": {
        "p25": 80.28,
        "median": 88.64,
        "p75": 94.12
      },
      "free_booking_tariff": {
        "p25": 97.4,
        "median": 100.0,
        "p75": 100.0
      },
      "within_center_difference_pp": {
        "p25": 3.99,
        "median": 9.52,
        "p75": 17.54
      },
      "bootstrap_95_ci_median_difference_pp": [
        8.54,
        10.0
      ],
      "tariff_higher_pct": 83.35
    },
    "return_90d_pct": {
      "bonus": {
        "p25": 86.21,
        "median": 92.68,
        "p75": 97.37
      },
      "free_booking_tariff": {
        "p25": 98.53,
        "median": 100.0,
        "p75": 100.0
      },
      "within_center_difference_pp": {
        "p25": 0.0,
        "median": 6.25,
        "p75": 12.0
      },
      "bootstrap_95_ci_median_difference_pp": [
        5.56,
        6.77
      ],
      "tariff_higher_pct": 74.79
    }
  },
  "quality": {
    "tenants_attempted": 2174,
    "tenants_succeeded": 2174,
    "tenants_failed": 0,
    "largest_center_new_participant_share_pct": 0.43,
    "largest_10_centers_share_pct": 3.0,
    "each_center_weighted_once": true,
    "personal_or_center_identifiers_exported": false
  },
  "limitations": [
    "Fecha de creación del perfil se usa como aproximación a incorporación; no acredita alta contractual ni primera relación histórica fuera de WodBuster.",
    "La cohorte exige una primera asistencia durante los 30 días posteriores a crear el perfil y no mide conversión desde registro sin visita.",
    "Una segunda asistencia no equivale a permanencia ni pago; describe repetición efectiva registrada.",
    "Canal, hora, día y mes de primera visita son asociaciones descriptivas y no demuestran causalidad."
  ],
  "weekend_second_visit": {
    "status": "validated",
    "question": "Cómo cambia la segunda visita según el día inicial dentro de cada tipo de acceso.",
    "bonus": {
      "minimum_new_participants_each_period": 10,
      "centers": 69,
      "weekday_new_participants": 7451,
      "weekend_new_participants": 1603,
      "return_7d_pct": {
        "weekday": {
          "p25": 51.96,
          "median": 62.03,
          "p75": 73.98
        },
        "weekend": {
          "p25": 20.0,
          "median": 31.58,
          "p75": 54.55
        },
        "weekend_minus_weekday_pp": {
          "p25": -35.32,
          "median": -20.0,
          "p75": -4.8
        },
        "bootstrap_95_ci_median_difference_pp": [
          -26.83,
          -11.98
        ],
        "weekend_lower_pct_of_centers": 81.16
      },
      "return_30d_pct": {
        "weekday": {
          "p25": 66.67,
          "median": 79.41,
          "p75": 89.93
        },
        "weekend": {
          "p25": 28.57,
          "median": 54.55,
          "p75": 75.81
        },
        "weekend_minus_weekday_pp": {
          "p25": -33.33,
          "median": -17.27,
          "p75": -2.92
        },
        "bootstrap_95_ci_median_difference_pp": [
          -25.94,
          -9.96
        ],
        "weekend_lower_pct_of_centers": 85.51
      },
      "return_90d_pct": {
        "weekday": {
          "p25": 71.43,
          "median": 86.0,
          "p75": 92.31
        },
        "weekend": {
          "p25": 30.0,
          "median": 70.0,
          "p75": 85.71
        },
        "weekend_minus_weekday_pp": {
          "p25": -29.36,
          "median": -14.52,
          "p75": -1.36
        },
        "bootstrap_95_ci_median_difference_pp": [
          -18.77,
          -6.52
        ],
        "weekend_lower_pct_of_centers": 81.16
      }
    },
    "free_booking_tariff": {
      "minimum_new_participants_each_period": 10,
      "centers": 29,
      "weekday_new_participants": 4306,
      "weekend_new_participants": 597,
      "return_7d_pct": {
        "weekday": {
          "p25": 80.0,
          "median": 90.1,
          "p75": 94.81
        },
        "weekend": {
          "p25": 70.59,
          "median": 90.91,
          "p75": 94.44
        },
        "weekend_minus_weekday_pp": {
          "p25": -7.86,
          "median": -2.37,
          "p75": 4.49
        },
        "bootstrap_95_ci_median_difference_pp": [
          -7.19,
          3.47
        ],
        "weekend_lower_pct_of_centers": 58.62
      },
      "return_30d_pct": {
        "weekday": {
          "p25": 96.43,
          "median": 98.43,
          "p75": 99.18
        },
        "weekend": {
          "p25": 90.91,
          "median": 100.0,
          "p75": 100.0
        },
        "weekend_minus_weekday_pp": {
          "p25": -7.03,
          "median": 0.72,
          "p75": 1.57
        },
        "bootstrap_95_ci_median_difference_pp": [
          -5.93,
          1.09
        ],
        "weekend_lower_pct_of_centers": 37.93
      },
      "return_90d_pct": {
        "weekday": {
          "p25": 96.43,
          "median": 99.17,
          "p75": 100.0
        },
        "weekend": {
          "p25": 95.45,
          "median": 100.0,
          "p75": 100.0
        },
        "weekend_minus_weekday_pp": {
          "p25": 0.0,
          "median": 0.0,
          "p75": 1.02
        },
        "bootstrap_95_ci_median_difference_pp": [
          0.0,
          0.79
        ],
        "weekend_lower_pct_of_centers": 24.14
      }
    },
    "open_access": {
      "minimum_new_participants_each_period": 10,
      "centers": 144,
      "weekday_new_participants": 22683,
      "weekend_new_participants": 2986,
      "return_7d_pct": {
        "weekday": {
          "p25": 69.79,
          "median": 79.6,
          "p75": 88.89
        },
        "weekend": {
          "p25": 36.2,
          "median": 60.0,
          "p75": 77.26
        },
        "weekend_minus_weekday_pp": {
          "p25": -32.39,
          "median": -17.64,
          "p75": -3.33
        },
        "bootstrap_95_ci_median_difference_pp": [
          -20.84,
          -13.22
        ],
        "weekend_lower_pct_of_centers": 83.33
      },
      "return_30d_pct": {
        "weekday": {
          "p25": 84.41,
          "median": 91.66,
          "p75": 96.35
        },
        "weekend": {
          "p25": 53.0,
          "median": 75.34,
          "p75": 91.67
        },
        "weekend_minus_weekday_pp": {
          "p25": -32.01,
          "median": -12.4,
          "p75": -1.15
        },
        "bootstrap_95_ci_median_difference_pp": [
          -16.57,
          -7.46
        ],
        "weekend_lower_pct_of_centers": 78.47
      },
      "return_90d_pct": {
        "weekday": {
          "p25": 87.34,
          "median": 94.34,
          "p75": 97.76
        },
        "weekend": {
          "p25": 61.97,
          "median": 85.47,
          "p75": 97.66
        },
        "weekend_minus_weekday_pp": {
          "p25": -21.19,
          "median": -6.77,
          "p75": 0.49
        },
        "bootstrap_95_ci_median_difference_pp": [
          -9.76,
          -3.57
        ],
        "weekend_lower_pct_of_centers": 67.36
      }
    },
    "bonus_sensitivity": {
      "5": {
        "minimum_new_participants_each_period": 5,
        "centers": 180,
        "weekday_new_participants": 14416,
        "weekend_new_participants": 2329,
        "return_7d_pct": {
          "weekday": {
            "p25": 56.95,
            "median": 66.83,
            "p75": 77.45
          },
          "weekend": {
            "p25": 26.58,
            "median": 42.86,
            "p75": 62.5
          },
          "weekend_minus_weekday_pp": {
            "p25": -37.61,
            "median": -17.58,
            "p75": -4.43
          },
          "bootstrap_95_ci_median_difference_pp": [
            -24.23,
            -13.01
          ],
          "weekend_lower_pct_of_centers": 81.11
        },
        "return_30d_pct": {
          "weekday": {
            "p25": 74.12,
            "median": 84.16,
            "p75": 91.22
          },
          "weekend": {
            "p25": 42.86,
            "median": 66.67,
            "p75": 83.33
          },
          "weekend_minus_weekday_pp": {
            "p25": -32.55,
            "median": -14.54,
            "p75": -2.01
          },
          "bootstrap_95_ci_median_difference_pp": [
            -18.49,
            -11.74
          ],
          "weekend_lower_pct_of_centers": 77.22
        },
        "return_90d_pct": {
          "weekday": {
            "p25": 79.7,
            "median": 89.64,
            "p75": 94.7
          },
          "weekend": {
            "p25": 54.37,
            "median": 80.0,
            "p75": 100.0
          },
          "weekend_minus_weekday_pp": {
            "p25": -22.51,
            "median": -9.6,
            "p75": 3.29
          },
          "bootstrap_95_ci_median_difference_pp": [
            -12.4,
            -4.43
          ],
          "weekend_lower_pct_of_centers": 65.56
        }
      },
      "20": {
        "minimum_new_participants_each_period": 20,
        "centers": 29,
        "weekday_new_participants": 4376,
        "weekend_new_participants": 1067,
        "return_7d_pct": {
          "weekday": {
            "p25": 51.85,
            "median": 65.32,
            "p75": 74.39
          },
          "weekend": {
            "p25": 21.05,
            "median": 40.54,
            "p75": 61.29
          },
          "weekend_minus_weekday_pp": {
            "p25": -24.84,
            "median": -12.69,
            "p75": -0.14
          },
          "bootstrap_95_ci_median_difference_pp": [
            -23.29,
            -4.8
          ],
          "weekend_lower_pct_of_centers": 75.86
        },
        "return_30d_pct": {
          "weekday": {
            "p25": 66.67,
            "median": 78.26,
            "p75": 87.63
          },
          "weekend": {
            "p25": 40.0,
            "median": 57.14,
            "p75": 77.27
          },
          "weekend_minus_weekday_pp": {
            "p25": -25.94,
            "median": -14.3,
            "p75": -2.92
          },
          "bootstrap_95_ci_median_difference_pp": [
            -19.54,
            -6.53
          ],
          "weekend_lower_pct_of_centers": 82.76
        },
        "return_90d_pct": {
          "weekday": {
            "p25": 68.6,
            "median": 81.52,
            "p75": 92.23
          },
          "weekend": {
            "p25": 40.0,
            "median": 66.67,
            "p75": 85.71
          },
          "weekend_minus_weekday_pp": {
            "p25": -18.6,
            "median": -12.26,
            "p75": -1.36
          },
          "bootstrap_95_ci_median_difference_pp": [
            -17.65,
            -3.0
          ],
          "weekend_lower_pct_of_centers": 82.76
        }
      }
    },
    "quality": {
      "paired_within_center": true,
      "access_and_weekday_crossed_before_aggregation": true,
      "each_center_weighted_once": true,
      "personal_or_center_identifiers_exported": false
    },
    "limitations": [
      "El día de la primera visita es una asociación y no demuestra que el fin de semana cause menor repetición.",
      "Eventos, pruebas puntuales, programación disponible y perfil de quien empieza pueden diferir entre semana y fin de semana.",
      "La comparación equilibra por centro y tipo de acceso, pero no por actividad, campaña comercial ni motivación individual.",
      "La cohorte comienza con una primera asistencia efectiva; no mide conversión desde un registro sin visita ni permanencia contractual."
    ]
  }
}